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Miley Rumer | The Sports Encounter

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NEW YORK: The graphic appearing on US Open television coverage makes the women’s World No. 1 battle look wonderfully simple.

Aryna Sabalenka. Elena Rybakina. Jessica Pegula. Coco Gauff.

Four women, one ranking, and a series of possibilities that will be decided during the second week in New York.

The mathematics tell a more revealing story.

This is technically a four-player race for the No. 1 position in the PIF WTA Rankings. In practical terms, however, Elena Rybakina controls almost everything that happens next.

Rybakina does not need to win the US Open. She does not even need to reach the final. If she reaches the semifinals, the World No. 1 ranking is hers regardless of what Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff accomplish.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, is the reigning World No. 1 and two-time defending US Open champion, yet she cannot guarantee keeping the ranking through her own result alone. She must win the title and Rybakina must lose before the semifinals.

Pegula and Gauff face the same equation. Each must become US Open champion and each needs Rybakina eliminated before the final four.

That imbalance is what makes this ranking battle far more interesting than a conventional points race.

The player currently ranked No. 2 has the clearest route to No. 1. The woman already holding the top ranking must win another Grand Slam just to have a chance of keeping it.

For readers following the tournament from the opening week, The Sports Encounter Tennis Hub brings together our Grand Slam reports, match analysis, player features and wider US Open coverage.

Coverage cutoff: This explainer reflects the WTA No. 1 race after Aryna Sabalenka defeated Taylor Townsend to reach the quarterfinals and Linda Noskova advanced to meet her. Jessica Pegula’s Round-of-16 match against Sorana Cirstea, Elena Rybakina’s meeting with Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff’s match against Iva Jovic had not been completed at this cutoff.

WTA No. 1 Race at a Glance

Player Current WTA Rank Published Ranking Points What She Needs
Aryna Sabalenka No. 1 8,575 Win US Open and Rybakina must lose before semifinals
Elena Rybakina No. 2 8,141 Reach semifinals to guarantee No. 1; can also become No. 1 earlier depending on other results
Jessica Pegula No. 3 7,265 Win US Open and Rybakina must lose before semifinals
Coco Gauff No. 4 6,704 Win US Open and Rybakina must lose before semifinals

The current published points come from the official PIF WTA singles rankings. The WTA’s own US Open No. 1 ranking breakdown confirms the four qualification scenarios.

The First Thing to Understand: WTA Rankings Are Rolling, Not a Season Scoreboard

Sabalenka currently leads Rybakina by 434 ranking points.

Looking only at that number makes the situation confusing. How can Sabalenka be ahead and still need to win the US Open while Rybakina can secure No. 1 merely by reaching the semifinals?

The explanation lies in the WTA’s rolling 52-week ranking system.

Players do not simply accumulate points indefinitely. Results from the corresponding period one year earlier eventually fall away and are replaced by new results.

That creates a particularly severe problem for Sabalenka at this US Open.

She won the tournament in 2025.

That means she is defending 2,000 ranking points.

Rybakina reached only the fourth round last year, so she is defending 240.

Gauff also lost in the fourth round and is defending 240.

Pegula reached the semifinals, meaning 780 points are coming off her total before being replaced by her 2026 result.

The 2025 points each contender is defending

Player 2025 US Open Result Points Being Defended
Aryna Sabalenka Champion 2,000
Elena Rybakina Round of 16 240
Jessica Pegula Semifinal 780
Coco Gauff Round of 16 240

This is the mechanism that turns a 434-point Sabalenka lead into a Rybakina advantage once the old US Open points are stripped out.

The Sports Encounter Calculation: What the Race Looks Like After the 2025 Points Come Off

The table below is not an official live WTA ranking. It is a straightforward rollover calculation using the WTA’s published rankings and the points each player earned at the 2025 US Open.

Player Published Points 2025 US Open Points Removed Rollover Base Before 2026 US Open Points
Aryna Sabalenka 8,575 -2,000 6,575
Elena Rybakina 8,141 -240 7,901
Jessica Pegula 7,265 -780 6,485
Coco Gauff 6,704 -240 6,464

That is the hidden table underneath the television graphic.

Once the old US Open results are removed, Rybakina effectively begins the 2026 replacement calculation at 7,901 points.

Sabalenka falls to 6,575.

The apparent 434-point deficit has turned into an effective 1,326-point advantage for Rybakina before this year’s US Open points are inserted.

This does not mean the official rankings currently list Rybakina first. They do not. Sabalenka remains World No. 1 while the tournament is being played.

It explains why the post-US Open calculation strongly favors Rybakina.

Why a Rybakina Semifinal Ends the Debate

Grand Slam ranking points rise sharply during the closing rounds.

US Open Finish WTA Ranking Points
Round of 16 240
Quarterfinal 430
Semifinal 780
Final 1,300
Champion 2,000

Add 780 semifinal points to Rybakina’s 7,901 rollover base and she reaches a projected 8,681 points.

That figure is untouchable.

Sabalenka’s maximum possible post-US Open total is 8,575, and she can reach it only by winning the title.

Pegula’s maximum is 8,485.

Gauff’s maximum is 8,464.

Therefore, if Rybakina reaches the semifinal:

  • Sabalenka cannot remain No. 1 even by winning the championship.
  • Pegula cannot become No. 1 even by winning the championship.
  • Gauff cannot become No. 1 even by winning the championship.

That is why Rybakina’s semifinal qualification would settle the ranking battle before championship weekend begins.

Rybakina’s Projected Ranking at Every Remaining Stage

Rybakina’s US Open Result 2026 Points Earned Projected Post-US Open Total No. 1 Situation
Loses Round of 16 240 8,141 Can still become No. 1 if Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff do not win title
Loses Quarterfinal 430 8,331 Can still become No. 1 if Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff do not win title
Loses Semifinal 780 8,681 Guaranteed World No. 1
Loses Final 1,300 9,201 Guaranteed World No. 1
Wins Title 2,000 9,901 Guaranteed World No. 1

This table explains why Rybakina is the pivot of the entire race.

She can lose before the semifinals and still finish No. 1.

The other three cannot lose at all.

What Sabalenka Must Do to Stay World No. 1

Sabalenka’s scenario is much harsher than the current ranking might suggest.

She must win the US Open.

Anything less eliminates her from the No. 1 calculation.

Her projected totals demonstrate why:

Sabalenka Finish Projected Post-US Open Total
Quarterfinal 7,005
Semifinal 7,355
Finalist 7,875
Champion 8,575

Even reaching another US Open final would leave Sabalenka on approximately 7,875 points.

Rybakina would have at least 8,141 if she lost in the Round of 16 because she would simply replace last year’s 240 points with another 240.

Sabalenka therefore needs all 2,000 champion’s points.

She also needs Rybakina stopped in either the fourth round or quarterfinals.

The stakes are amplified by history.

Sabalenka is chasing a third consecutive US Open title. Her current tournament run has already reached the quarterfinals after a 6-4, 6-3 victory over Taylor Townsend, extending her New York winning streak to 17 matches.

Her next opponent is Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, with the latest bracket available through the official US Open women’s singles draw.

Our Cincinnati analysis of Sabalenka’s loss to Sara Bejlek showed how vulnerable the World No. 1 position had already become during the final tournament before New York.

Now the requirement is unforgiving. Sabalenka can win every remaining match and still lose the ranking if Rybakina reaches the semifinals.

The 100-Week Milestone Hanging Over Sabalenka’s Title Defense

The ranking equation carries another layer that has little to do with the trophy itself.

By the end of the US Open, Sabalenka will have spent 99 consecutive weeks at World No. 1 and 107 weeks at No. 1 overall.

If she remains on top when the post-US Open rankings are released, she will reach 100 consecutive weeks as World No. 1.

That creates a remarkable condition.

Sabalenka may have to complete a US Open three-peat merely to give herself a chance to reach a ranking milestone that looked almost inevitable a few months ago.

Her title defense was already one of the central themes in our US Open 2026 tournament preview. The ranking race has now made every Sabalenka match carry consequences beyond the championship.

Why Rybakina’s No. 1 Challenge Is Not Just a Rankings Technicality

It would be easy to describe Rybakina’s advantage as the product of Sabalenka losing 2,000 defending points.

That would explain the mathematics without explaining the season.

Rybakina entered the US Open as No. 1 on the Race to the WTA Finals leaderboard, which measures results accumulated during the current season rather than the rolling 52-week rankings used to determine the official World No. 1.

She has earned that position through one of the strongest seasons on the women’s tour.

Rybakina won the Australian Open, defeating Sabalenka in the final for her second Grand Slam title. She continued accumulating major hard-court results during the North American swing and reached the Toronto final after defeating Gauff in three sets.

The Sports Encounter followed that run closely, including Rybakina’s comeback victory over Gauff in Toronto.

Her summer did contain a significant warning before the US Open. A left ankle problem forced her to retire during her Cincinnati quarterfinal, ending another opportunity to overtake Sabalenka before New York. Our Cincinnati report examined how the injury halted that No. 1 push.

She arrived at Flushing Meadows healthy enough to win three matches and reach the fourth round.

That matters because the ranking system may be about to formalize something the 2026 season race has already been suggesting: Rybakina has accumulated the strongest body of work over the current campaign.

Naomi Osaka Now Holds Enormous Influence Over the Ranking Race

Rybakina’s fourth-round opponent makes the next stage particularly dangerous.

Naomi Osaka is a two-time US Open champion and one of the few players in the draw capable of matching Rybakina’s first-strike power from both the serve and baseline.

This is not simply another Round-of-16 match.

If Osaka beats Rybakina, the No. 1 race immediately opens for Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff, provided they can win the tournament.

If Rybakina beats Osaka, she moves into the quarterfinals with a projected 8,331 points and will be only one victory away from guaranteeing the ranking.

Her quarterfinal would effectively become a match for World No. 1.

The matchup also carries recent history. Rybakina defeated Osaka in a three-set Toronto thriller after recovering from a set and a break down, a match covered during The Sports Encounter’s National Bank Open semifinal qualification report.

Jessica Pegula’s Path: Win Her First Major and Become No. 1

Pegula’s equation contains no room for strategic calculation.

She needs the US Open title.

If Rybakina loses before the semifinals and Pegula wins the championship, Pegula would finish with a projected 8,485 points and become World No. 1 for the first time.

That would combine two career breakthroughs in the same afternoon: a first Grand Slam singles title and a first No. 1 ranking.

Pegula entered New York in excellent hard-court form. She reached the Cincinnati final after defeating several dangerous opponents before losing to Gauff.

The wider significance of that tournament was examined in our Cincinnati women’s final analysis, which identified Pegula as one of the leading players carrying genuine momentum into New York.

She has already survived a serious scare at this US Open, recovering from a 6-1 first-set defeat against Leylah Fernandez to win in three sets and reach the fourth round.

Her next obstacle is Sorana Cirstea.

Pegula cannot control what Rybakina does against Osaka. She can control whether she remains alive long enough for the mathematics to matter.

Coco Gauff Can Turn a Cincinnati Run Into the Biggest Ranking Jump of Her Career

Gauff’s route is mathematically identical to Pegula’s.

She must win the US Open and Rybakina must lose before the semifinals.

Her maximum projected ranking total is 8,464 points.

That would be enough to overtake Rybakina if the Kazakhstani exits in either the Round of 16 or quarterfinals.

Like Pegula and Rybakina, Gauff has never been World No. 1.

She enters the decisive stage with perhaps the strongest immediate winning momentum of the four contenders.

Gauff won Cincinnati immediately before the US Open and carried a nine-match winning streak into the fourth round in New York.

That Cincinnati title was more important than another trophy. Our analysis of Gauff’s Cincinnati championship showed how her level improved through the closing rounds and why her title changed the women’s US Open conversation.

She now faces Iva Jovic, one of the tournament’s most impressive young players.

For Gauff, every remaining match has become both a title match and a ranking match.

What Happens if Rybakina Loses to Osaka?

This is probably the most important scenario for fans trying to understand the television graphic.

If Rybakina loses in the Round of 16, she would finish the US Open with the same 240 points she earned in 2025.

Her projected post-tournament total would therefore remain approximately 8,141.

At that point:

  • Sabalenka could overtake her by winning the title and reaching 8,575.
  • Pegula could overtake her by winning the title and reaching 8,485.
  • Gauff could overtake her by winning the title and reaching 8,464.

If somebody else wins the US Open, Rybakina becomes World No. 1.

That last sentence is what makes the race unusual.

Rybakina could lose her next match and still become No. 1 without lifting the trophy if Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff all fail to win the championship.

What if Rybakina Reaches the Quarterfinal but Loses There?

The same fundamental situation remains.

A quarterfinal result would give Rybakina 430 points and move her projected total to approximately 8,331.

That would still leave all three rivals capable of overtaking her by winning the title:

Player Projected Total if US Open Champion
Aryna Sabalenka 8,575
Jessica Pegula 8,485
Coco Gauff 8,464
Elena Rybakina after QF loss 8,331

Once Rybakina wins that quarterfinal, however, the arithmetic changes permanently.

Her semifinal points take her to 8,681.

No one can catch her.

Why the Official Ranking and the 2026 Race Tell Different Stories

There are two leaderboards that frequently create confusion during a ranking battle.

The PIF WTA Rankings

This is the official rolling ranking used for World No. 1, tournament seeding and player ranking positions. It incorporates eligible results across approximately the previous 52 weeks.

The Race to the WTA Finals

This measures points earned during the current calendar season and determines qualification for the season-ending championship.

Sabalenka leads the official WTA rankings.

Rybakina entered the US Open leading the 2026 Race.

That distinction gives the New York ranking battle an unusually logical underlying story.

If Rybakina takes No. 1 after the US Open, the rolling ranking will effectively be moving closer to what the current-season results have already shown.

The Four-Way Graphic Hides an Unequal Race

The television graphic is correct.

Four players can finish this US Open as World No. 1.

They do not possess four equal paths.

Player Must Win US Open? Needs Help From Rybakina? Controls Own No. 1 Destiny?
Elena Rybakina No No Yes, by reaching SF
Aryna Sabalenka Yes Yes No
Jessica Pegula Yes Yes No
Coco Gauff Yes Yes No

This is the central point most quick ranking graphics cannot fully communicate.

Sabalenka owns the No. 1 ranking.

Rybakina owns the strongest position in the race to decide who has it next.

How the US Open Draw Could Settle the Ranking Before the Final

Sabalenka is already through to the quarterfinals against Noskova.

Pegula still has to negotiate Cirstea.

Rybakina has Osaka waiting in the fourth round.

Gauff faces Jovic.

The order of those matches matters because the ranking pressure can change before some contenders return to the court.

A Rybakina defeat would immediately tell Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff that winning the championship can deliver No. 1.

A Rybakina quarterfinal victory would do the opposite. It would eliminate the ranking component for everyone else before the tournament even reaches its final weekend.

The second week therefore contains two competitions operating simultaneously.

There is the visible race for the US Open trophy.

Underneath it sits a ranking race whose decisive match may not be the final.

How We Reached This Point

The women’s North American hard-court season has repeatedly threatened Sabalenka’s hold on No. 1.

Rybakina came close to overtaking her before the US Open but was stopped by injury in Cincinnati.

Sabalenka herself was eliminated by Sara Bejlek, a result covered in our Cincinnati Round-of-16 report.

Pegula reached the Cincinnati final.

Gauff won it.

Rybakina arrived in New York with the year’s strongest Race position.

All four then survived the opening rounds of a US Open that had already lost several major names, as documented in our US Open tournament analysis after the early upsets and weather disruptions.

The structure of the women’s draw itself was set before the tournament began, when Sabalenka and Pegula landed in the top half while Rybakina and Gauff were placed in the bottom half. Our US Open draw-day report tracked those routes when the championship picture first took shape.

The Sports Encounter Verdict: The Ranking Belongs to Sabalenka, but the Race Belongs to Rybakina

The simplest way to understand the WTA World No. 1 debate is to separate possession from control.

Sabalenka possesses the ranking.

She has earned that position through nearly two years of extraordinary consistency and is approaching 100 consecutive weeks at the top.

She is also trying to become a three-time defending US Open champion.

Yet the ranking mathematics have reached a point where even those achievements cannot give her complete control.

Rybakina has it.

A semifinal appearance settles the race in her favor.

A quarterfinal defeat still leaves her with a realistic route to No. 1.

Even a Round-of-16 defeat would not eliminate her unless Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff goes on to win the championship.

Pegula and Gauff face the opposite reality. They have no fallback route. Their first World No. 1 ranking requires the biggest title available in American tennis.

That is what makes this more than a technical rankings story.

Sabalenka is trying to protect an era.

Rybakina is trying to turn the strongest season-long challenge into the top ranking.

Pegula and Gauff are chasing a career first that can arrive only through a Grand Slam championship.

Four names appear on the graphic.

One player controls the equation.

Until someone stops Elena Rybakina before the semifinals, every path to World No. 1 runs through her.

Frequently Asked Questions About the WTA No. 1 Race

Who is the current WTA World No. 1?

Aryna Sabalenka is currently ranked World No. 1 with 8,575 published ranking points, ahead of Elena Rybakina on 8,141.

Can Elena Rybakina become World No. 1 at the 2026 US Open?

Yes. Rybakina will guarantee the World No. 1 ranking if she reaches the US Open semifinals. She can also become No. 1 without reaching the semifinals if Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff all fail to win the title.

Does Rybakina need to win the US Open to become No. 1?

No. Rybakina is the only one of the four contenders who does not need the championship. A semifinal appearance guarantees her the top ranking.

What does Aryna Sabalenka need to remain World No. 1?

Sabalenka must win the 2026 US Open and Elena Rybakina must lose before reaching the semifinals.

Can Jessica Pegula become World No. 1?

Yes. Pegula must win the US Open and Rybakina must lose in either the Round of 16 or quarterfinals. It would be Pegula’s first World No. 1 ranking.

Can Coco Gauff become World No. 1?

Yes. Gauff must win the US Open and Rybakina must be eliminated before the semifinals. Gauff has never previously held the No. 1 singles ranking.

Why is Sabalenka in danger of losing No. 1 despite currently leading Rybakina?

Sabalenka is defending 2,000 points from winning the 2025 US Open, while Rybakina is defending only 240 points from a Round-of-16 result. When those old results roll off, Rybakina gains a major advantage in the replacement calculation.

What happens if Rybakina loses to Naomi Osaka?

Rybakina would remain around 8,141 projected post-US Open points. Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff could then overtake her by winning the tournament. If none of those three wins the title, Rybakina would still become World No. 1.

What is the difference between the WTA rankings and the Race to the WTA Finals?

The official WTA rankings use results across a rolling 52-week period. The Race to the WTA Finals counts points from the current season. Sabalenka leads the official ranking, while Rybakina entered the US Open leading the 2026 Race.

When will the new WTA No. 1 ranking become official?

The outcome will be reflected when the post-US Open PIF WTA Rankings are released after the tournament. The identity of the next No. 1 could be mathematically decided earlier if Rybakina reaches the semifinals.

Miley Rumer is a St. Clairsville, Ohio-based sports journalist and The Sports Encounter’s U.S. correspondent, covering the NHL, NBA, NFL, MLB, MLS, and major sporting stories across North America. Her work focuses on player performance, team identity, rivalries, roster decisions, tournament developments, and the human stories that shape how fans experience sport. At The Sports Encounter, Miley contributes breaking news, match coverage, analysis, and feature stories across American and international sport, including major soccer and tennis events. Her reporting combines clear news judgment with performance context, historical perspective, and an understanding of the fan conversations surrounding teams and athletes. Based in the United States, she brings a grounded North American perspective to coverage of the leagues, competitions, and personalities driving global sports interest.

Breaking News

Emma Navarro Finally Solves Kalinskaya, but Jessica Pegula Awaits in All-American US Open Quarterfinal

Emma Navarro finally defeated Anna Kalinskaya after losing their first two meetings, winning 6-4, 6-2 to reach the US Open quarterfinals. Now she faces Jessica Pegula, who leads their rivalry 4-0, in an all-American clash that guarantees a home semifinalist.

Ruben Santos | The Sports Encounter

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Emma Navarro celebrates after beating Anna Kalinskaya to reach the 2026 US Open quarterfinals, where she will face fellow American Jessica Pegula.

NEW YORK: Emma Navarro entered Sunday night carrying a small piece of unfinished business against Anna Kalinskaya.

She left Arthur Ashe Stadium with it settled.

The No. 26 seed defeated Kalinskaya 6-4, 6-2 to reach the 2026 US Open quarterfinals, overturning an 0-2 career record against the Russian and extending a New York run that has become cleaner and more convincing with every round.

Her reward is another familiar opponent.

This one presents a considerably larger problem.

Jessica Pegula awaits in an all-American quarterfinal after defeating Sorana Cirstea 6-3, 6-4 earlier Sunday. Pegula leads Navarro 4-0 in their career head-to-head and beat her as recently as Cincinnati three weeks ago.

That creates the real story behind Navarro’s progress.

She has just removed one opponent she had never beaten.

To reach her second US Open semifinal in three years, she must immediately do it again.

The matchup also guarantees an American woman in the semifinals and sends two players with very different current trajectories into a quarterfinal carrying much more history than their rankings suggest.

Pegula is World No. 3, a former US Open finalist and still mathematically alive in the race for the WTA World No. 1 ranking.

Navarro entered New York ranked No. 27 after a season that included illness, a ranking slide and a gradual rebuild. Four victories later, she is back where her international breakthrough accelerated two years ago.

For continuing tournament coverage, analysis and results, visit The Sports Encounter Tennis Hub.

Emma Navarro vs Anna Kalinskaya: US Open 2026 Result

Player Seed Set 1 Set 2 Result
Emma Navarro 26 6 6 Winner
Anna Kalinskaya 21 4 2 Eliminated

The result is confirmed by the official US Open women’s singles draw, which now places Navarro opposite Pegula in the quarterfinals.

Navarro Did More Than Reverse a 0-2 Head-to-Head

Kalinskaya had beaten Navarro twice before Sunday.

Their most recent meeting came earlier this season in Doha, where Kalinskaya won 7-5, 2-6, 6-2.

That history mattered because both players arrived in the fourth round with evidence that New York suited them.

Kalinskaya had finally broken through the US Open third-round barrier by defeating No. 9 seed Elina Svitolina 6-3, 2-6, 6-3. She had previously reached the third round in each of the previous two years without advancing farther.

Navarro had already produced one of the women’s draw’s most significant upsets by defeating No. 7 seed Karolina Muchova 6-3, 7-5.

The pre-match expectation was therefore a close contest between a clean ball-striker and an American player whose movement, patience and willingness to make opponents hit another ball have historically worked well in New York.

The match never became as complicated as that forecast suggested.

Navarro took the first set 6-4.

She then expanded the advantage rather than allowing Kalinskaya to reset.

The second set finished 6-2.

That difference is important because Navarro’s first two matches of this US Open had required three sets.

Navarro’s Tournament Is Becoming More Efficient as the Opposition Gets Better

Round Opponent Score Match Pattern
Round 1 Lois Boisson 7-6(8), 6-7(1), 6-3 Three-set battle disrupted by rain
Round 2 Caty McNally 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 Recovered after losing first set
Round 3 Karolina Muchova 6-3, 7-5 Straight-sets upset of No. 7 seed
Round of 16 Anna Kalinskaya 6-4, 6-2 First career win over Kalinskaya

The progression is one of the most interesting parts of Navarro’s tournament.

Her supposedly easier matches were the ones that required recovery work.

Rain interrupted her opening match against Boisson overnight, and Navarro eventually needed a third set after originally being close to a straight-sets victory. Our analysis of the US Open’s rain-disrupted opening week identified Navarro as perhaps the clearest example of how uneven scheduling conditions were affecting players.

Round 2 presented another problem.

McNally won the opening set 6-3 before Navarro stabilized the match and took the next two 6-2, 6-3.

Since then, she has not dropped a set.

Muchova had reached the Wimbledon final and entered New York as the No. 7 seed.

Kalinskaya had just eliminated Svitolina.

Navarro handled both in two sets.

That is a healthier tournament trajectory than simply counting four victories.

Her tennis is becoming less expensive as the draw becomes more difficult.

The Muchova Victory Changed How Navarro’s US Open Should Be Viewed

The third round was the moment Navarro’s run stopped looking like another respectable appearance and began resembling something more serious.

Muchova entered that match carrying the kind of résumé that normally creates hesitation in an opponent.

She had reached back-to-back US Open semifinals in 2024 and 2025, made the Wimbledon final earlier this summer and climbed into the elite end of the WTA rankings.

Navarro beat her 6-3, 7-5.

The result came through movement and discomfort rather than overwhelming power.

Muchova later acknowledged that Navarro repeatedly made the exchanges difficult and prevented her from finding the clean rhythm she wanted.

That matters before Pegula because Navarro’s quarterfinal opponent is one of the best players in women’s tennis at denying opponents time.

Pegula takes the ball early, redirects pace efficiently and rarely requires elaborate preparation to change direction.

Navarro’s job will be to prevent those exchanges from settling into Pegula’s preferred tempo.

Jessica Pegula Is the Wall Navarro Has Never Broken

If Kalinskaya represented unfinished business, Pegula represents a recurring problem.

They have played four times.

Pegula has won four times.

Year Tournament Surface Winner Score
2024 Miami Hard Jessica Pegula 7-6(1), 6-3
2025 Bad Homburg Grass Jessica Pegula 6-4, 1-6, 6-3
2025 Beijing Hard Jessica Pegula 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-1
2026 Cincinnati Hard Jessica Pegula 7-5, 6-2

The most recent result is the most useful.

Pegula defeated Navarro 7-5, 6-2 in Cincinnati on August 17.

The Sports Encounter’s Cincinnati analysis noted at the time that Pegula had improved to 4-0 against Navarro and had gradually removed the American’s ability to disturb her rhythm after a competitive opening set.

The official WTA match record from Cincinnati confirms the 7-5, 6-2 result.

That match took place only three weeks before this quarterfinal.

Neither player therefore needs much video work to understand what the other wants to do.

Why Pegula Has Controlled This Matchup

Navarro’s greatest strengths usually become more valuable as rallies lengthen.

She moves efficiently, changes defensive positions quickly and rarely appears uncomfortable being asked to hit several additional balls before an opportunity develops.

Pegula’s game attacks that comfort zone.

Her compact preparation allows her to redirect pace early, particularly from the backhand side, and she often takes time away without needing the kind of visibly explosive swing associated with bigger hitters.

That can force Navarro into defending before she has established the neutral rally she prefers.

Navarro needs to change where the rally begins

The solution is unlikely to be simply playing more aggressively.

Trying to outhit Pegula from ordinary baseline positions risks giving the World No. 3 exactly the pace she likes to redirect.

Navarro instead needs to vary the height, depth and direction of the opening exchanges enough to prevent Pegula from stepping immediately into predictable patterns.

That means returning with depth, changing direction earlier when the opportunity is genuine and being willing to bring Pegula forward rather than playing every important point through the same baseline geometry.

Pegula will want to shorten Navarro’s decision time

Pegula’s best periods against Navarro have come when she controls the first two meaningful shots of the rally.

If the serve creates a neutral return and the next groundstroke lands deep, Navarro can spend the remainder of the point reacting.

New York’s quicker hard courts make that pattern particularly dangerous.

Navarro’s 2026 Season Makes This Quarterfinal More Significant Than Her Ranking Suggests

Navarro entered the tournament ranked No. 27.

That number does not fully describe the season she has had.

She finished 2025 at No. 15 but slid to No. 39 during a difficult first half of 2026.

Illness forced her to miss both the Miami Open and the Charleston tournament in her hometown.

She eventually rebuilt momentum by winning Strasbourg in May, her first title in 15 months, before reaching the Nottingham final during the grass season.

The US Open has now provided the clearest evidence that the recovery is no longer simply about ranking repair.

She is beating players who entered the tournament with stronger recent Grand Slam résumés.

Muchova was one.

Kalinskaya was another opponent Navarro had never previously solved.

Pegula represents the next level.

New York Has Always Meant More to Navarro Than an Ordinary Major

Navarro’s best Grand Slam result came here in 2024.

She reached the semifinals after defeating fellow American Coco Gauff during the run, establishing herself as one of the country’s leading young players.

The semifinal became a reference point for what her game could look like when confidence, movement and hard-court timing aligned.

The two seasons since have not followed a straight upward line.

That is precisely why another US Open quarterfinal carries weight.

This is not simply a return to a familiar round.

It is evidence that the 2024 run was not a one-time accident created by a favorable fortnight.

Our broader US Open 2026 preview identified Navarro as part of a deep American group underneath the headline contenders. She has now moved beyond that supporting role.

Pegula Arrives With Different Pressure

Pegula’s quarterfinal contains stakes Navarro does not carry.

The 32-year-old is still chasing her first Grand Slam singles title.

She reached the 2024 US Open final before losing to Aryna Sabalenka and returned to the semifinals in 2025.

Earlier this year she also reached the Australian Open semifinals.

The pattern is no longer about proving she can survive the second week of a major.

The question is whether she can finish one.

Her summer provided plenty of high-level preparation.

Pegula reached the Washington final, where Alexandra Eala completed a dramatic comeback to beat her. The Sports Encounter covered that result in our analysis of Eala’s breakthrough title.

Toronto produced disappointment when Pegula exited earlier than expected, part of the changing WTA landscape examined in our National Bank Open Round-of-16 report.

Cincinnati then provided the strongest response.

Pegula beat Navarro, survived Sorana Cirstea in three sets, defeated Amanda Anisimova despite a physical concern and then beat Iga Swiatek before losing to Coco Gauff in the final.

Our Cincinnati quarterfinal analysis showed how Pegula survived an injury scare and a deciding-set tiebreak against Anisimova.

The complete closing-week picture was covered in our Cincinnati women’s final analysis, where Pegula’s run was more significant than the championship loss alone suggested.

Pegula’s World No. 1 Dream Now Runs Through Navarro

The quarterfinal also intersects with the WTA ranking race.

Pegula remains mathematically capable of becoming World No. 1 after the US Open.

Her route requires two things.

She must win the title.

Elena Rybakina must lose before reaching the semifinals.

Pegula cannot control the Rybakina part.

Navarro can control whether the rest of the equation survives.

If Navarro wins their quarterfinal, Pegula’s first opportunity to reach World No. 1 disappears immediately.

That gives the matchup another layer.

Navarro is playing for a semifinal.

Pegula is playing for the semifinal, the Grand Slam title and potentially the top ranking in women’s tennis.

The All-American Label Does Not Mean the Matchup Is Comfortable

American tennis has had an unusually strong presence in the second week.

Ten Americans reached the fourth round across the men’s and women’s draws.

Navarro beating Kalinskaya and Pegula beating Cirstea now guarantee at least one American woman in the semifinals.

That is good news for the home audience.

It does not make the quarterfinal emotionally easy.

These players know one another well.

They share the same tour, the same national-team environment and many of the same North American tournaments.

The Cincinnati meeting happened less than a month ago.

The familiarity removes mystery.

It also removes excuses.

Navarro Has Already Changed One Matchup in New York

This may be the most useful psychological point she carries into the quarterfinal.

Before Sunday, Kalinskaya had beaten Navarro every time they played.

Navarro did not need five sets of tennis, luck or physical collapse from the opponent to change that history.

She won 6-4, 6-2.

Pegula’s 4-0 record is stronger evidence than Kalinskaya’s previous 2-0 advantage.

It remains history rather than destiny.

Navarro has just reminded herself of the difference.

How Navarro Reached the Quarterfinal After a Difficult Opening Week

The context of the first four rounds also explains why this run feels different from a simple upset sequence.

Navarro’s tournament began in chaos.

Rain forced her opening match against Boisson across two days.

McNally then took the first set in Round 2 before another weather delay interrupted the contest.

By the time Navarro reached Muchova, she had already dealt with schedule disruption, a three-set escape and two different recovery windows.

The early conditions were detailed in our US Open qualifying and draw report and later in our broader analysis of how rain changed the tournament’s opening week.

What followed was the opposite.

She beat Muchova in two.

She beat Kalinskaya in two.

That is exactly the trajectory a player wants before entering a major quarterfinal.

Navarro vs Pegula: What the Numbers Say Before the Quarterfinal

Category Emma Navarro Jessica Pegula
US Open seed No. 26 No. 3
Current ranking entering tournament No. 27 No. 3
Best US Open result Semifinal, 2024 Final, 2024
2026 US Open sets lost 2 1
Career H2H 0 wins 4 wins
Most recent meeting Pegula won 7-5, 6-2 in Cincinnati, August 2026
Quarterfinal stakes Second US Open semifinal Third straight deep New York run, first major title and No. 1 bid

The Winner Will Enter a Very Different Kind of Semifinal

A place in the semifinal also places either Navarro or Pegula within one match of the championship.

The other quarterfinal in their section features World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka against Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova.

That means the American survivor will not simply be rewarded with a deeper run.

Another major champion-level test is likely waiting immediately afterward.

The women’s draw therefore leaves little room for a player to build slowly from this point.

Navarro has already shown she can remove a higher seed.

Pegula has shown throughout the summer that she can beat elite opponents in consecutive rounds.

Tuesday will determine which profile survives.

The Sports Encounter Verdict

Emma Navarro’s victory over Anna Kalinskaya should not be reduced to the fact that she reached another US Open quarterfinal.

The more useful detail is how her tournament has changed.

She needed three sets to survive each of the first two rounds.

Then the opposition became stronger and Navarro became cleaner.

Karolina Muchova went out in straight sets.

Anna Kalinskaya followed in straight sets.

The second victory also ended a personal matchup she had never previously solved.

That makes Jessica Pegula an almost perfectly timed examination.

Pegula has beaten Navarro four times.

She beat her three weeks ago.

She knows how to take time away from Navarro’s defensive strengths and has more experience in the final stages of New York than almost anyone left in the draw.

Navarro does not need to pretend those facts do not exist.

She needs to use Sunday night’s result correctly.

An 0-2 head-to-head against Kalinskaya existed when the players walked onto Arthur Ashe Stadium.

It did not win Kalinskaya a single set.

Now another unfavorable history sits in front of Navarro.

This one is 0-4.

If she changes it too, the 2026 US Open stops being another comeback story.

It becomes a genuine championship run.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Emma Navarro beat Anna Kalinskaya at the 2026 US Open?

Yes. Emma Navarro defeated Anna Kalinskaya 6-4, 6-2 in the fourth round to reach the women’s singles quarterfinals.

Who will Emma Navarro play next at the US Open?

Navarro will face fellow American Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals.

What was the Emma Navarro vs Anna Kalinskaya score?

Navarro won in straight sets, 6-4, 6-2.

Had Emma Navarro beaten Anna Kalinskaya before?

No. Kalinskaya led their head-to-head 2-0 before the US Open match. Navarro’s victory was her first against Kalinskaya.

What is Jessica Pegula’s record against Emma Navarro?

Pegula leads their career head-to-head 4-0.

When did Pegula and Navarro last play?

They last met at the 2026 Cincinnati Open, where Pegula won 7-5, 6-2.

Has Emma Navarro reached a US Open semifinal before?

Yes. Navarro reached the semifinals at the 2024 US Open, which remains her best Grand Slam singles result.

What is Jessica Pegula’s best US Open result?

Pegula reached the women’s singles final in 2024 and returned to the semifinals in 2025.

Can Jessica Pegula still become World No. 1?

Yes. Pegula must win the US Open title and Elena Rybakina must lose before reaching the semifinals.

Is an American woman guaranteed to reach the US Open semifinals?

Yes. Because Navarro and Pegula meet in the quarterfinals, one American woman is guaranteed a semifinal place.

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Barbados Tridents Beat St Lucia Kings by 8 Wickets as CPL 2026 Playoff Race Becomes Five-Team Fight

Barbados Tridents chased 139 in 17.5 overs to defeat St Lucia Kings by eight wickets in CPL 2026 Match 29. With Guyana and Antigua already through, Barbados, Jamaica, St Lucia, St Kitts and TKR are now fighting for the final two playoff places.

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Barbados Tridents celebrate an eight-wicket win over St Lucia Kings as the CPL 2026 playoff race tightens for the final two qualification spots.

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados: Barbados Tridents are still sitting seventh in the Caribbean Premier League table.

That position has rarely looked more misleading.

A controlled eight-wicket victory over St Lucia Kings at Kensington Oval on Sunday moved the Tridents to six points, improved their net run rate and, more importantly, gave them three remaining matches in which they can still reach 12 points.

St Lucia posted 138 for six after being sent in, with Kamil Pooran making 37 from 24 balls and captain Roston Chase contributing 34 from 28. Mujeeb Ur Rahman took 3 for 22 and Daniel Sams added 2 for 20 as Barbados prevented a workable middle-overs position from becoming a competitive finish.

The chase never developed into the pressure game St Lucia needed.

Brandon King and Zachary Carter put Barbados on course before Quinton de Kock and Rivaldo Clarke closed the match without another wicket falling. De Kock finished unbeaten on 47 from 31 balls, Clarke made 36 not out from 34, and the Tridents reached 139 for two in 17.5 overs.

They won with 13 balls remaining.

For an ordinary league match, that would be a comfortable home victory.

At this stage of CPL 2026, it did far more.

Guyana Amazon Warriors and Antigua and Barbuda Falcons have now secured two of the four playoff positions. Five teams remain mathematically alive for the final two places: Jamaica Kingsmen, St Lucia Kings, St Kitts and Nevis Patriots, defending champions Trinbago Knight Riders and Barbados.

The Tridents have fewer points than four of those teams.

They also have more cricket left than any of them.

That combination has turned the final week of the league phase into a qualification puzzle in which almost every remaining match changes somebody else’s season.

The Sports Encounter has followed that shifting equation throughout the closing stages, including our full CPL 2026 playoff race and qualification analysis.

Barbados Tridents vs St Lucia Kings: Match 29 at a Glance

Match Detail Information
Competition Caribbean Premier League 2026
Match Match 29
Date September 6, 2026
Venue Kensington Oval, Bridgetown
Toss Barbados Tridents elected to field
St Lucia Kings 138/6 in 20 overs
Barbados Tridents 139/2 in 17.5 overs
Result Barbados Tridents won by 8 wickets with 13 balls remaining
Top Tridents scorer Quinton de Kock, 47* from 31 balls
Top Kings scorer Kamil Pooran, 37 from 24 balls
Best bowling Mujeeb Ur Rahman, 3/22

Official competition scores, fixtures and match information are available through the Cricket West Indies CPL 2026 match center.

The Real Result Was What Happened to the Playoff Table

Barbados did not climb several places by winning.

They remain at the bottom because TKR also have six points and possess the better current net run rate.

The more important number is games played.

Barbados have completed only seven matches.

Every other team below the already-qualified top two has played nine.

CPL 2026 standings after Match 29

Pos. Team P W L NR Pts NRR Maximum
1 Guyana Amazon Warriors 6 6 0 0 12 +1.977 20
2 Antigua and Barbuda Falcons 9 5 3 1 11 -0.267 13
3 Jamaica Kingsmen 9 4 5 0 8 -0.096 10
4 St Lucia Kings 9 4 5 0 8 -0.903 10
5 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots 9 3 5 1 7 +0.405 9
6 Trinbago Knight Riders 9 3 6 0 6 +0.066 8
7 Barbados Tridents 7 3 4 0 6 -0.645 12

Guyana formally secured their playoff place earlier Sunday by beating St Kitts and Nevis Patriots by seven wickets. The official CPL report confirmed the Warriors’ qualification after Mohammad Nabi took 4 for 17 and Guyana completed another controlled chase.

Antigua are also mathematically safe on 11 points. Only Guyana and Barbados can still finish above 11, meaning the Falcons cannot fall outside the top four even if they lose their remaining match.

That leaves two tickets.

Five teams want them.

Why Barbados Are Suddenly More Dangerous Than Seventh Place Suggests

Look only at points and Barbados appear behind the race.

Look at maximum points and the picture changes completely.

Among the five teams competing for the final two positions, only Barbados can still reach 12.

Jamaica and St Lucia can reach 10.

The Patriots can reach nine.

TKR can reach eight.

Barbados therefore have something nobody else in the chasing pack possesses: enough games in hand to move beyond every direct rival without relying entirely on net run rate.

Barbados’ remaining fixtures

Date Fixture Why It Matters
September 10 Barbados Tridents vs St Kitts and Nevis Patriots Direct playoff collision; Patriots can reach nine
September 12 Barbados Tridents vs Jamaica Kingsmen Direct playoff collision; Jamaica currently sit on eight
September 13 Barbados Tridents vs Guyana Amazon Warriors Final league match against already-qualified opposition

The official CPL 2026 fixture schedule confirms the sequence.

The first two games are particularly important because Barbados do not merely collect two points if they win.

They also prevent a direct rival from collecting two.

If the Tridents beat both the Patriots and Jamaica, they reach 10 points while holding the Patriots on seven and Jamaica on eight.

At that stage, Barbados would be guaranteed a playoff place regardless of what happens against Guyana because only St Lucia could still join them on 10.

That is the cleanest Barbados qualification route.

Beat the Patriots.

Beat Jamaica.

The final game stops being about survival.

The Tridents Have Now Beaten St Lucia Twice

The value of Sunday’s victory becomes even clearer when placed alongside the first meeting.

Barbados also defeated St Lucia in Match 9, winning by nine runs after Sherfane Rutherford made 61 from 31 balls and the Tridents’ spin attack controlled the closing stages.

The Sports Encounter’s analysis of the first Tridents-Kings meeting showed how Barbados used middle-overs spin to disrupt a chase that had remained alive deep into the innings.

The return meeting followed a different pattern.

St Lucia never built the total required to put Barbados under serious scoreboard pressure.

The end result was the same.

Four league points from two meetings with a direct playoff rival could become one of the decisive details of the season.

Mujeeb Stops St Lucia From Building a Platform

St Lucia’s innings never completely collapsed.

That was part of the problem.

They kept enough wickets intact to remain functional but never produced the acceleration normally expected from that stability.

Tim Seifert was gone for seven at the end of the second over, caught off Gudakesh Motie.

Kamil Pooran supplied the innings’ most aggressive early contribution.

His 37 came from 24 balls, including five fours and a six, and helped move the Kings to 54 for two after seven overs.

Mujeeb ended his innings with the final ball of the seventh.

That wicket changed the middle phase.

St Lucia’s innings progression

Stage Score What Happened
2 overs 7/1 Seifert dismissed
7 overs 54/2 Kamil Pooran removed after 37 from 24
12.1 overs 81/3 John Campbell falls for 24
15.4 overs 111/4 Roston Chase dismissed for 34
18.5 overs 127/6 Mujeeb removes Forde after dismissing Asalanka
20 overs 138/6 Kings finish below seven runs per over

John Campbell made 24 from 27.

Chase scored 34 from 28.

Charith Asalanka managed only 12 from 18.

Those innings kept wickets intact without putting enough strain on Barbados’ attack.

The Last 26 Balls Exposed St Lucia’s Biggest Problem

When Chase was dismissed at 111 for four after 15.4 overs, St Lucia still had 26 deliveries remaining.

They scored only 27 more runs.

For a side defending its playoff position, that phase was costly.

Two wickets fell, but Barbados never needed a dramatic collapse to control the innings.

Mujeeb removed Asalanka and Matthew Forde within three deliveries in the 19th over.

The Kings reached 138 rather than forcing Barbados toward a chase in the 160 range.

The difference became obvious once de Kock settled.

Mujeeb and Sams gave Barbados control

Bowler Overs Runs Wickets Economy
Mujeeb Ur Rahman 4 22 3 5.50
Daniel Sams 4 20 2 5.00
Gudakesh Motie 3 30 1 10.00
Jakeem Pollard 4 26 0 6.50

Mujeeb delivered 12 dot balls in his four overs.

Pollard also produced 12 dots despite going wicketless.

Sams removed Campbell and Chase, the two batters attempting to hold the middle together.

Barbados did not rely on one spectacular spell. Different bowlers interrupted different phases before St Lucia could connect them into one sustained scoring surge.

De Kock and Clarke Refuse to Complicate the Chase

A target of 139 can become uncomfortable if a side loses early wickets and allows the required rate to creep upward.

Barbados avoided that problem.

Brandon King made 22 from 20 and Zachary Carter struck 32 from 22, including three sixes.

King fell at 41 in the sixth over.

Carter followed at 63 for two after 8.2 overs.

That gave St Lucia a small opening.

De Kock and Clarke closed it.

At the 10-over strategic timeout Barbados were 73 for two, requiring 66 from the final 60 balls.

There was no need to manufacture risk.

Clarke concentrated on keeping the chase stable while de Kock supplied the stronger acceleration.

They added an unbroken 76 for the third wicket.

Batter Runs Balls 4s 6s Strike Rate
Quinton de Kock 47* 31 3 2 151.61
Rivaldo Clarke 36* 34 2 1 105.88

Barbados reached 100 after 14.6 overs.

They needed another 39 from 30 balls.

They used only 17.

The Margin Matters Because Net Run Rate May Decide Fourth Place

The Tridents did not simply need two points.

They needed a result large enough to begin repairing a damaged net run rate.

Before this game, their NRR had been around -0.929 after the 35-run defeat to TKR.

The eight-wicket victory improved it to approximately -0.645.

That still leaves Barbados behind several direct rivals, but the direction matters.

St Lucia slipped to -0.903.

Jamaica sit at -0.096.

TKR are at +0.066.

The Patriots hold the most valuable NRR among the chasing teams at +0.405.

The Sports Encounter explained why these margins matter in our updated TKR playoff qualification scenarios after their win over Barbados.

At this stage, winning by eight wickets is not the same tournament outcome as scraping home from the final ball.

Both produce two points.

Only one provides meaningful NRR repair.

Jamaica Kingsmen: Eight Points, One Match and No Guarantee

Jamaica currently occupy third place.

They also have only one match remaining.

That match is against Barbados.

A Jamaica victory takes the Kingsmen to 10 points.

That would create a strong qualification position, but it does not yet guarantee a place because St Lucia can also reach 10 and Barbados could still potentially finish on 10 depending on their other results.

If multiple teams finish level, NRR becomes decisive.

Jamaica’s current -0.096 figure is considerably healthier than St Lucia’s and Barbados’.

They also know how quickly the table can change. Guyana beat Jamaica by eight wickets in Match 26, leaving them stuck on eight and transforming what had looked like a relatively secure position. Our Match 26 playoff analysis explained why that defeat reopened the race below them.

St Lucia Kings Are Still Alive, but They Now Need Guyana

The Kings have not been eliminated.

They remain on eight points with one match left against Guyana Amazon Warriors.

A victory would take them to 10.

A defeat leaves them on eight and dependent almost entirely on other results and NRR.

The problem is the NRR.

St Lucia were already damaged by the 137-run defeat against St Kitts, when Dasun Shanaka smashed the fastest century in CPL history.

Our Match 25 playoff analysis showed how that defeat pushed the Kings’ NRR deep into negative territory, while our separate breakdown of Shanaka’s 121 not out from 43 balls detailed how severe the damage was.

The Barbados defeat has now added another problem.

St Lucia no longer control the cutoff simply by sitting on eight points.

The Patriots Have the Best NRR but Need One More Result

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots are fifth on seven points.

Their final league match is against Barbados.

A victory takes them to nine.

A defeat eliminates them because Jamaica and St Lucia already have eight, while Barbados would also move to eight.

A no-result would move the Patriots to eight and keep them mathematically alive, although the exact NRR comparisons would then matter.

The Patriots’ biggest advantage is their +0.405 NRR.

That number was transformed by two extraordinary performances.

They first chased 218 against Barbados, with Johnson Charles making 78 in one of the tournament’s biggest successful chases. The Sports Encounter’s full report on the historic 218 chase explained how that result revived their season.

They then destroyed St Lucia by 137 runs.

Guyana stopped that momentum in Match 28 and formally booked a playoff place, but the Patriots remain alive.

Thursday’s Barbados match is effectively another elimination game.

TKR’s Path Is Still Open, but It Is the Narrowest

Trinbago Knight Riders remain on six points from nine matches.

The defending champions can reach only eight.

That means one condition is non-negotiable.

They must beat Guyana.

A loss eliminates them.

A no-result eliminates them.

Victory merely keeps the calculation alive.

TKR then need enough of Jamaica, St Lucia, St Kitts and Barbados to finish on eight or fewer, followed by a favorable NRR comparison.

The important detail is that TKR’s current +0.066 NRR is better than Jamaica, St Lucia and Barbados.

It is worse than St Kitts.

That makes their final margin against Guyana almost as important as the result itself.

Our original TKR qualification explainer tracked how the defending champions reached this position, while the latest version shows how their 35-run win over Barbados preserved the mathematical route.

Maximum Points Explain the Race Better Than the Current Table

Team Current Points Games Left Maximum Current Situation
Jamaica Kingsmen 8 1 10 Beat Barbados to reach 10; NRR may still matter
St Lucia Kings 8 1 10 Beat Guyana to reach 10; poor NRR makes a loss dangerous
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots 7 1 9 Must avoid defeat to Barbados; win puts them on nine
Trinbago Knight Riders 6 1 8 Must beat Guyana and need extensive help
Barbados Tridents 6 3 12 Still control the strongest route among the chasing teams

This is why seventh place should not be confused with seventh-best qualification chances.

Barbados have the lowest current NRR among most of the race.

They have only six points.

They also possess six league points still available.

Three Remaining Barbados Games Could Decide Everyone Else’s Season

No team will influence the final playoff race more directly than the Tridents.

They play St Kitts.

They play Jamaica.

They finish against Guyana.

Two of those games are against direct rivals for the final two places.

That creates a series of double swings.

If Barbados beat the Patriots

Barbados move to eight.

St Kitts remain on seven and are eliminated.

If Barbados then beat Jamaica

Barbados move to 10.

Jamaica remain on eight.

The Tridents qualify because only St Lucia can still reach 10 among the other chasing teams.

If Barbados lose either direct contest

The picture changes immediately.

A Patriots victory moves St Kitts to nine.

A Jamaica victory moves the Kingsmen to 10.

Barbados would still retain mathematical routes in some combinations, but the clean qualification path would disappear.

How Barbados Went From Early Leaders to Survival Mode

The Tridents’ season has not followed a straight line.

They began with consecutive victories and briefly sat at the top of the standings.

The first win over St Lucia was part of that start.

Then came three consecutive defeats.

Antigua triggered a dramatic collapse in Match 16 when Barbados lost seven wickets for 32 runs after reaching 93 for three. Our analysis of Joshua James and the Falcons dismantling the Tridents showed how quickly a controlled chase disappeared.

TKR subsequently beat them through spin.

St Kitts then chased 218.

Another defeat to TKR followed in Match 27.

Barbados entered Sunday’s match knowing that games in hand meant very little if they could not turn them into wins.

Against St Lucia, they finally did.

What Went Wrong for St Lucia?

The Kings’ defeat can be reduced to three connected failures.

1. Too many middle-order balls produced too little

Campbell, Chase and Asalanka used 73 deliveries between them for 70 runs.

That left the innings dependent on somebody producing a late surge.

Nobody did.

2. Barbados owned the final four overs

Once Chase departed, St Lucia were unable to turn wickets in hand into boundary volume.

Mujeeb’s double strike in the 19th over removed the possibility of a final-over explosion.

3. The Kings could not create scoreboard pressure

Forde bowled economically and Charith Asalanka conceded only eight from two overs, but defending 138 gave St Lucia almost no margin for one expensive over or one missed opportunity.

Amari Goodridge conceded 30 from 1.5 overs.

Against a target that small, that was enormously damaging.

The Next Two Barbados Matches May Be More Important Than the Final One

Guyana await on September 13.

That sounds like the hardest fixture on the schedule, and statistically it is.

The Warriors are unbeaten at six wins from six and already qualified.

Yet Barbados can potentially settle their own playoff position before reaching that game.

Two home victories against the Patriots and Jamaica take the Tridents to 10 and remove those two teams from the ability to finish above them.

That turns the sequence into something approaching a two-game qualification series at Kensington Oval.

St Kitts arrive first.

Jamaica follow.

The playoffs themselves will also be staged at Kensington Oval, with third facing fourth in the Eliminator before the top two contest Qualifier 1. The official CPL knockout schedule confirms all four postseason matches will be played in Barbados.

The Tridents therefore have another incentive beyond qualification.

If they can survive the league phase, they will already be operating on the ground where the title will ultimately be decided.

The Sports Encounter Verdict

Barbados Tridents did not move out of seventh place by beating St Lucia Kings.

They changed the playoff race anyway.

Mujeeb Ur Rahman and Daniel Sams prevented St Lucia from building a finish. Quinton de Kock and Rivaldo Clarke then made sure a manageable chase never became complicated.

The cricket was controlled.

The consequence was anything but.

Guyana and Antigua are through.

Five teams remain for two positions.

Jamaica and St Lucia have the points.

The Patriots have the best NRR among the chasing pack.

TKR have the defending champions’ experience but almost no mathematical margin.

Barbados have games.

That may be the most valuable asset of all.

The Tridents can still reach 12 points. Nobody else fighting for the final two positions can reach more than 10.

More importantly, Barbados play the Patriots and Jamaica themselves.

They do not need to sit in a dressing room hoping somebody else delivers the right result.

Beat St Kitts.

Beat Jamaica.

And the playoff ticket is theirs before Guyana even arrives in Bridgetown.

Sunday’s eight-wicket victory therefore did much more than keep Barbados alive.

It handed them back a measure of control.

For a team sitting seventh, that is a remarkably powerful position to hold.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Barbados Tridents vs St Lucia Kings in CPL 2026 Match 29?

Barbados Tridents defeated St Lucia Kings by eight wickets at Kensington Oval, chasing 139 in 17.5 overs with 13 balls remaining.

What was the St Lucia Kings score against Barbados?

St Lucia Kings scored 138 for six from their 20 overs.

Who top-scored for Barbados Tridents?

Quinton de Kock finished unbeaten on 47 from 31 balls, while Rivaldo Clarke made 36 not out from 34.

Who was Barbados’ best bowler?

Mujeeb Ur Rahman took three wickets for 22 runs from four overs. Daniel Sams claimed two for 20.

Have Guyana Amazon Warriors qualified for the CPL 2026 playoffs?

Yes. Guyana secured their playoff place after defeating St Kitts and Nevis Patriots in Match 28 and currently have 12 points from six matches.

Have Antigua and Barbuda Falcons qualified for the CPL playoffs?

Yes. Antigua have 11 points, and the remaining maximum-points combinations mean they can no longer finish outside the top four.

Which teams are still fighting for the final two CPL 2026 playoff spots?

Jamaica Kingsmen, St Lucia Kings, St Kitts and Nevis Patriots, Trinbago Knight Riders and Barbados Tridents remain mathematically alive for the final two positions.

Can Barbados Tridents still qualify for the playoffs?

Yes. Barbados have six points from seven matches and can still reach 12. If they beat both St Kitts and Jamaica in their next two games, they will reach 10 points and guarantee a playoff position regardless of their final match against Guyana.

Can TKR still qualify for the CPL 2026 playoffs?

Yes, but TKR must beat Guyana in their final match to reach eight points and then require favorable results involving Barbados, Jamaica, St Lucia and St Kitts, along with a strong enough net run rate.

Are St Lucia Kings eliminated from CPL 2026?

No. St Lucia remain on eight points and can reach 10 by defeating Guyana Amazon Warriors in their final league match.

What do the Patriots need to qualify?

St Kitts have seven points and one match remaining against Barbados. A win takes them to nine and keeps them strongly in contention. A defeat eliminates them, while a no-result would leave them alive on eight with NRR and other results becoming decisive.

When do Barbados Tridents play next?

Barbados next face St Kitts and Nevis Patriots at Kensington Oval on September 10, 2026.

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Ben Shelton Blasts Past Stefanos Tsitsipas to Earn Blockbuster Carlos Alcaraz US Open Quarterfinal

Ben Shelton produced his cleanest performance of the tournament to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets and reach the US Open quarterfinals. Next comes Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion, in the biggest test yet of Shelton’s increasingly controlled power game.

Ruben Santos | The Sports Encounter

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Ben Shelton, Carlos Alcaraz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, US Open 2026, Tennis

NEW YORK: Ben Shelton has always had enough power to make Arthur Ashe Stadium feel smaller.

The serve can reach numbers most players never touch. The forehand can turn a neutral rally into defense with one swing. The celebrations make sure nobody in the building forgets who just won the point.

What changed against Stefanos Tsitsipas on Sunday night was something less spectacular and considerably more important.

Shelton controlled the match.

The No. 8 seed defeated the former World No. 3 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 to reach the 2026 US Open quarterfinals, producing his first straight-sets victory of the tournament against an opponent who had arrived in the fourth round playing his best Grand Slam tennis in months.

There was no fifth-set danger, no tiebreak to negotiate and no late-night rescue required.

Three sets were enough.

The result sends Shelton into the matchup that had been sitting in the draw since before the tournament began: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz for a place in the US Open semifinals.

Alcaraz had already booked his place earlier Sunday by defeating Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. The defending champion has now won 18 consecutive Grand Slam matches and 11 straight at Flushing Meadows.

For Shelton, however, the significance of the quarterfinal goes beyond getting another shot at one of the best players in the world.

His entire North American summer has been pointing toward this test.

The Sports Encounter identified Shelton as one of the central American title threats in our US Open men’s title-race analysis. He has now reached the match that will tell us whether that threat can become something larger.

Ben Shelton vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: US Open 2026 Result

Player Seed / Ranking Context Set 1 Set 2 Set 3 Result
Ben Shelton No. 8 seed, World No. 9 6 6 6 Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas World No. 53, former World No. 3 2 3 4 Eliminated

The official US Open men’s singles draw confirms Shelton’s 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 victory and his place in the quarterfinals.

Shelton’s Best Performance Came When the Opposition Got Stronger

This is the part of the result that deserves the most attention.

Shelton’s first three matches in New York were successful without being clean.

Tallon Griekspoor took the opening set 6-1 before Shelton recovered.

Hubert Hurkacz pushed him across four demanding sets.

Denis Shapovalov took another set from him in a match that finished deep into the New York night.

Tsitsipas looked like the most accomplished obstacle yet.

He was also the first one Shelton removed without dropping a set.

Shelton’s US Open path to the quarterfinals

Round Opponent Score Sets Lost
Round 1 Tallon Griekspoor 1-6, 6-1, 7-6(3), 6-2 1
Round 2 Hubert Hurkacz 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 7-5 1
Round 3 Denis Shapovalov 7-6(3), 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4 1
Round of 16 Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 0

That progression says something useful about Shelton’s tournament.

His tennis has become more economical as the stakes have increased.

Earlier rounds forced him to solve different problems. Griekspoor gave him a terrible opening set. Hurkacz matched him with elite serving. Shapovalov supplied left-handed power and enough shot-making to make large stretches uncomfortable.

The Sports Encounter’s broader US Open early-round analysis argued that Shelton’s first two victories were valuable precisely because they were not routine. He was being asked to solve matches rather than simply overpower opponents.

Against Tsitsipas, those lessons appeared to come together.

The Montreal Version of Shelton Has Arrived in New York

There was a reason expectations were unusually high before the US Open.

Shelton arrived in New York after defending his National Bank Open title in Montreal.

He won six matches there without dropping a set.

The final against Brandon Nakashima ended 6-3, 7-6(4), completing a tournament in which Shelton’s serve remained destructive without becoming the only reason he was winning.

Our analysis of Shelton’s Montreal title defense identified the real development at the time.

Power was no longer the interesting part.

Control was.

He returned more effectively, selected his attacks better and protected leads without constantly needing spectacular tennis.

The same pattern had been visible one round earlier when Shelton defeated Learner Tien 6-2, 6-3 in the Montreal semifinals. As we noted in our Shelton-Tien tactical breakdown, Tien wanted long exchanges and additional decisions. Shelton refused to give him that type of match.

Tsitsipas experienced something similar Sunday.

Shelton never allowed the contest to become a philosophical five-set struggle in which the Greek could gradually rebuild his confidence.

The scoreboard kept moving in one direction.

Cincinnati Suddenly Looks Like a Useful Failure

The unusual part of Shelton’s summer is that his biggest disappointment came immediately after his biggest triumph.

After winning Montreal without losing a set, he traveled to Cincinnati and lost his opening match to Jaime Faria 6-4, 6-4.

Faria had never previously beaten a Top 10 opponent.

Shelton created opportunities and failed to convert enough of them.

The performance was flat enough to raise an obvious question: had the Montreal peak arrived too early?

Our Cincinnati analysis of Shelton’s early exit treated it as a missed opportunity rather than a crisis.

New York is making that distinction look correct.

The Cincinnati loss interrupted his momentum without damaging his confidence. It also gave him additional recovery time after a demanding Canadian title defense.

Four US Open victories later, that week looks less like evidence of decline and more like a small detour.

Tsitsipas Had Finally Found Something in New York

This was not a victory over a player simply waiting to lose.

Tsitsipas had produced one of the more interesting revival stories of the tournament.

The 28-year-old had never previously advanced beyond the third round of the US Open, an extraordinary weakness in an otherwise accomplished Grand Slam résumé that includes finals at Roland Garros and the Australian Open.

He entered New York ranked outside the Top 50 after a difficult period in which his confidence, results and coaching structure had all been questioned.

Then he started winning.

Arthur Fils, the Cincinnati champion and one of the most dangerous players entering the tournament, fell in four sets in Round 1.

Lloyd Harris followed.

No. 18 seed Jiri Lehecka took the opening set of their third-round meeting 6-2 before Tsitsipas responded 6-1, 7-6(3), 6-1.

For the first time in his career, Tsitsipas was in the US Open fourth round.

He had also reunited with the Patrick Mouratoglou academy structure and spoken openly about changing his mentality.

Even Tsitsipas acknowledged before Sunday’s match that the Shelton he was about to face was fundamentally different from the young American he defeated three years ago.

He was right.

Shelton Finally Answers Their 2023 Cincinnati Meeting

The only previous singles meeting between Shelton and Tsitsipas came at Cincinnati in 2023.

Tsitsipas won 7-6(3), 7-6(2).

That matchup belonged to a very different stage of both careers.

Shelton was still in his first full professional season and ranked No. 41.

Tsitsipas was ranked No. 4 and still firmly established among the sport’s leading contenders.

Three years later, the rankings and trajectories had largely reversed.

Shelton entered Sunday’s match inside the Top 10 and as the No. 8 seed.

Tsitsipas was ranked No. 53 and attempting to rebuild.

The score reflected that shift more clearly than anyone could have expected.

Tsitsipas won two tiebreaks in their first meeting.

He did not reach one on Sunday.

Next: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz

This is where the tournament becomes considerably more difficult.

Alcaraz defeated Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 earlier Sunday and has now extended his Grand Slam winning streak to 18 matches.

The defending US Open champion entered New York with one enormous uncertainty hanging over him.

His wrist.

Alcaraz had not played a singles match since April after a right wrist injury removed him from Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the North American Masters events.

The Sports Encounter examined that uncertainty when Alcaraz confirmed his US Open comeback after more than four months out.

The question was straightforward.

Could a seven-time Grand Slam champion arrive at the final major of the season without a conventional singles warm-up and immediately defend his title?

Four rounds later, the answer is becoming uncomfortable for everyone else in the draw.

Alcaraz has improved with each round

His opening victory over Roman Safiullin was controlled rather than spectacular.

That match also became a wider cultural story when Alcaraz returned in a Travis Scott x Nike look, something we covered in our report on Alcaraz’s first singles match since April.

Jaime Faria then took a set from him in Round 2.

Wu Yibing could not.

Neither could Paul.

Our US Open men’s draw analysis argued that Alcaraz was increasingly beginning to resemble the player who entered the tournament as defending champion rather than an athlete merely testing an injured wrist.

Sunday strengthened that conclusion.

The official US Open report on Alcaraz’s victory over Paul confirms the 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 score and his 18-match Grand Slam winning streak.

Alcaraz Leads Shelton 3-0, but the Previous Matches Matter

Shelton has never beaten Alcaraz in singles.

The official ATP head-to-head stands at 3-0 to the Spaniard.

Year Tournament Surface Winner Score
2023 Toronto Hard Carlos Alcaraz 6-3, 7-6(3)
2024 Laver Cup Indoor hard Carlos Alcaraz 6-4, 6-4
2025 Roland Garros Clay Carlos Alcaraz 7-6(8), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4

Their most recent meeting is the most instructive.

At Roland Garros in 2025, Shelton pushed Alcaraz for three hours and 19 minutes, won the third set and created three set points in the opening tiebreak before ultimately losing in four.

The ATP’s official report from that match records Alcaraz improving to 3-0 in their head-to-head.

Shelton did not win.

He did demonstrate that the matchup can become competitive when he protects the serve, attacks first and prevents Alcaraz from turning every rally into a movement contest.

The Tactical Question: Can Shelton Keep Alcaraz From Making Him Play One More Ball?

Shelton’s serve will dominate the quarterfinal conversation.

It should.

Through three rounds at this US Open, he had already produced a 148 mph serve, the fastest recorded at the tournament at that stage.

There are very few players capable of making an elite returner feel genuinely rushed before the ball has crossed the net.

Shelton can.

The challenge is what happens after Alcaraz gets the serve back.

Alcaraz wants to turn Shelton’s first strike into a second decision

Alcaraz’s defensive value is not simply that he retrieves difficult balls.

He retrieves them with enough quality to change the next shot.

A Shelton forehand that would finish the point against many opponents can come back deep enough to require another forehand.

A good approach can require a difficult volley.

A serve that creates a weak return can still lead to a passing shot if Shelton’s next attack is not precise.

That is where the quarterfinal will probably be decided.

Shelton does not need to stop attacking.

He needs to attack without assuming the first successful strike has completed the point.

The second serve may matter more than the first

Everybody understands what Shelton can do with his first serve.

The more revealing number will be what happens when the first delivery misses.

Alcaraz is too quick, too aggressive as a returner and too comfortable changing court position to allow predictable second serves to survive indefinitely.

Shelton will have to vary location, body serves and spin rather than simply using pace as the solution.

Short points favor Shelton, but reckless points favor Alcaraz

There is an important difference.

Shelton should want to shorten exchanges.

That does not mean trying to finish every neutral rally immediately.

Alcaraz thrives when opponents become impatient and attempt low-percentage winners because they fear the longer rally.

The version of Shelton that won Montreal and handled Tsitsipas understands this better than the version that first arrived on tour.

Why Shelton’s 2026 Season Makes This Match Different

Tsitsipas said it himself before Sunday’s match: this is not the same Shelton he faced in 2023.

The results support him.

Shelton has won titles on outdoor hard courts, indoor hard courts, clay and grass during 2026.

He successfully defended a Masters 1000 title in Canada.

He reached another Australian Open quarterfinal earlier this year before losing to Jannik Sinner.

He arrived at Flushing Meadows as the highest-ranked American man in the draw.

Our comprehensive US Open 2026 curtain-raiser listed Shelton among the men’s dark horses because his hard-court ceiling and New York history gave him a realistic path toward the second week.

That description now feels conservative.

He is no longer a dark horse trying to reach the business end.

He is there.

Shelton Returns to the US Open Quarterfinals After Two Difficult Years

New York was where Shelton first became a global tennis name.

In 2023, during only his second US Open main-draw appearance, he reached the semifinals.

The run included wins over Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe before Novak Djokovic ended it.

The next two years were less productive at Flushing Meadows.

Shelton exited in the third round in both 2024 and 2025.

That created an interesting question entering 2026.

Had the 2023 semifinal been an early flash of what Shelton could eventually become, or would it remain an isolated New York peak?

Reaching another quarterfinal provides an answer.

His 2023 run no longer stands alone.

American Men’s Tennis Has More Than One Reason to Believe

Shelton is not carrying the American challenge by himself.

Frances Tiafoe defeated former champion Daniil Medvedev in straight sets on Sunday.

Alex Michelsen beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry, also in straight sets.

Tiafoe and Michelsen will now meet in an all-American quarterfinal, guaranteeing at least one American man in the US Open semifinals.

Shelton makes it three American men already confirmed in the last eight.

The larger target has been unchanged since 2003.

No American man has won the US Open singles title since Andy Roddick.

Before this tournament, that 23-year drought was again part of every serious assessment of the men’s draw.

What has changed is the number of credible routes toward ending it.

Tiafoe has already reached two US Open semifinals.

Michelsen is producing the deepest Grand Slam run of his career.

Shelton has a previous semifinal and arrives at this quarterfinal after one of the strongest seasons of any American man.

The problem in Shelton’s path happens to be Carlos Alcaraz.

The Quarterfinal Is the Match the Draw Promised Before Day One

When the singles draw was released, Shelton’s section immediately carried one obvious possibility.

If he survived the early rounds, Alcaraz could be waiting in the quarterfinal.

Our US Open draw analysis highlighted how difficult Alcaraz’s route could become once the tournament reached its second week.

The projected blockbuster has survived the chaos.

Alcaraz survived the uncertainty around his wrist.

Shelton survived three four-set matches and then produced his sharpest performance against Tsitsipas.

They now meet with the hypothetical part removed.

What Shelton Must Carry From the Tsitsipas Match

The temptation after a straight-sets victory is to focus on the dominance.

The more useful lesson is the discipline underneath it.

Shelton did not need the match to become spectacular every five minutes.

He did not need a fifth-set crowd surge.

He did not need to survive a tiebreak.

He kept adding games until Tsitsipas ran out of tournament.

That is precisely the mentality he needs against Alcaraz.

The defending champion will produce impossible retrievals and sudden changes of pace.

He will win points that appear finished.

Arthur Ashe will react loudly when he does.

Shelton cannot treat those moments as evidence that he needs to play more aggressively.

He needs to continue making the correct decision.

The Sports Encounter Verdict

Ben Shelton beating Stefanos Tsitsipas is a significant US Open result.

How he beat him is more significant.

The serve was always going to make Shelton dangerous.

The forehand was always going to produce highlights.

His ceiling has never been difficult to see.

The question was whether enough control would eventually develop around those weapons to make them sustainable across seven Grand Slam matches.

Montreal suggested it had.

New York is providing stronger evidence.

Shelton has already survived the bad opening against Griekspoor, the serving duel with Hurkacz and the volatile left-handed battle with Shapovalov.

Against Tsitsipas, he needed none of that drama.

He won 6-2, 6-3, 6-4.

That performance earns him the hardest assignment available in his section of the draw.

Carlos Alcaraz is the defending champion. He has won 18 consecutive Grand Slam matches. He leads Shelton 3-0. His wrist has held up, his timing has improved and his confidence appears to be returning every day.

This is exactly the match Shelton should want.

If the American is going to move from dangerous contender to genuine Grand Slam champion, eventually he has to beat someone who represents the standard he is trying to reach.

On Tuesday, that standard will be standing on the other side of the net.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Ben Shelton beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at the 2026 US Open?

Yes. Ben Shelton defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 in the fourth round to reach the US Open quarterfinals.

Who will Ben Shelton play next at the US Open?

Shelton will face defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s singles quarterfinals.

What was the Ben Shelton vs Stefanos Tsitsipas score?

Shelton won in straight sets, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4.

Has Ben Shelton reached the US Open quarterfinals before?

Yes. Shelton reached the US Open semifinals in 2023. His 2026 run is his second appearance in the quarterfinals or better at Flushing Meadows.

What is Carlos Alcaraz’s record against Ben Shelton?

Alcaraz leads their singles head-to-head 3-0, with victories in Toronto in 2023, the Laver Cup in 2024 and Roland Garros in 2025.

When did Shelton last play Alcaraz?

Their most recent meeting came in the fourth round of Roland Garros in 2025, when Alcaraz won 7-6(8), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.

How did Carlos Alcaraz reach the US Open quarterfinals?

Alcaraz defeated Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 in the fourth round. The victory extended his Grand Slam winning streak to 18 matches.

How fast has Ben Shelton served at the 2026 US Open?

Shelton hit a 148 mph serve during his second-round victory over Hubert Hurkacz, the fastest recorded serve of the tournament through the first three rounds.

Who did Ben Shelton beat before Tsitsipas?

Shelton defeated Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz and Denis Shapovalov before beating Tsitsipas in the fourth round.

When was the last American man to win the US Open?

Andy Roddick was the last American man to win the US Open singles championship, taking the title in 2003.

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